Wireless,

I don't often agree with you, but on this point I do. We may have a technical reprieve from the recession (a quarter or two of GDP growth), but I see a second dip coming from a government debt crisis. We had a financial panic caused by a debt asset bubble popping (housing). To minimize the pain, we inflated another bubble - government debt. This is not unlike the panic of 1837 when a debt asset bubble popped (land speculation) which was followed by a downturn. The economy rebounded some in 1839-1840, but then turned down further and nine states defaulted on their debts (government debt bubble). The debt behavior of these nine states was very similar to what the federal government has been doing for the past year. The federal debt to the public increased by over $2 trillion in the past year:

Debt to public 9/15/08: $5,475,450,615,883.44
Debt to public 9/15/09: $7,522,853,517,308.98

This is an increase of 37% in 1 Year. Following the panic of 1837, the states that defaulted more than doubled their debts in 5 years. We are well on our way.