Why will CETV not even earn the .14 cents a share for 2010 that analysts "currently" predict? To be very simple about it...if we take the top figure of $70 million for EBIDA in 2009 and award CETV with a 50% increase in EBIDA for 2010, that would be $105 million EBIDA from which we subtract the same $100 million for interest expense and we are left with $5 million that will be surely eaten up by the accelerated depreciation being taken, and taxes.

Of course the above rosey "what if" doesnt look at all like it is even a remote possibility. Economists from JP Morgan and ING see a 0 to 3% increase in GDP for the countries that CETV services. The CEO of CETV is obviously seeing a brighter year and predicts a 6% increase in AD sales (AD sales are the core of CETV's business and were down 30% in 2009). A 6% increase in total revenues for 2010 would amount to about $40 million to the top line. $40 million is no where near enough to get to the rosey $35 million in EBIDA that we now know would still result in a net loss. CETV has not been productive at cutting costs in 2009 and in some markets had to increase costs so they could just maintain market share.

From the March lows to Dow 10,000 most companies were given a pass on fundamentals. As the market continues to consolidate at Dow 10,000 Investors now turn to weed out the good stocks from the not-so-good stocks. CETV is a company that will not earn a penny for this year and next. Investors will soon wake up (earnings release is tuesday BMO) and say "why in the heck is CETV trading at $27-$28 bucks a share when it should be trading at $10."

Just the humble thoughts of a former broker