I bought CETV at $8 bucks a share and sold just under $20. Sure I kicked myself for selling too soon, but I made good money and thats the name of the game. At that time, I thought CETV would have one bad year and be back growing fast in 2010. Well that is NOT going to happen and I now own a large chunk of Put options on CETV. The following is my opinion based on hours and hours of study and 4.25 hours listening to the investor conference held on Oct 15th.

CETV had a huge liquidity emergency earlier this year. The sale of 30% of the company to Time Warner was one of things that had to be done just to keep the company liquid. The CEO of CETV hated to do it, but it had to be done. (Warner got a sweet deal). Then CETV had to restructure their debt so they could avoid "come due" dates from 2009-2012. The CFO stated that the restructuring would add $39 million to interest expense, bringing total cash interest payments to $100 million for this year. (2009) EBIDA for the year (2009) is forecast by the CFO to be between $60 and $70 million. So, there is the first problem....$70 million EBIDA less $100 million for interest means a Net loss of more than $30 million for 2009. (thats ZERO earnings to you and me) 12 analysts have a median estimate of .14 cents a share earnings for all of 2010 (thats a forward PE of just about 196 for 2010) In the next post, I will explain why CETV wont even earn .14 cents in 2010.

Just the humble thoughts of a former broker