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Re: US banks on steroid      6-Oct-09 04:50 pm    
Greetings, Mr. Park, and thank you for the note.

You are right that banks has tools to manage various interest rate risks. For my part, I thought the repricing risk may significantly reverse to banks' favor due to what I expect to be rising rate environment. Note that Center, Nara, and Wilshire are all somewhat asset sensitive. Less so with Wilshire as it depends heavily (closed to 50%) on non-core deposits which tend to adjust fast when rate changes.

Excerpts from Wikipedia:
Banks face four types of interest rate risk:

Basis risk
The risk presented when yields on assets and costs on liabilities are based on different bases, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) versus the U.S. prime rate. In some circumstances different bases will move at different rates or in different directions, which can cause erratic changes in revenues and expenses.

Yield curve risk
The risk presented by differences between short-term and long-term interest rates. Short-term rates are normally lower than long-term rates, and banks earn profits by borrowing short-term money (at lower rates) and investing in long-term assets (at higher rates). But the relationship between short-term and long-term rates can shift quickly and dramatically, which can cause erratic changes in revenues and expenses.

Repricing risk
The risk presented by assets and liabilities that reprice at different times and rates. For instance, a loan with a variable rate will generate more interest income when rates rise and less interest income when rates fall. If the loan is funded with fixed rated deposits, the bank's interest margin will fluctuate.

Option risk
It is presented by optionality that is embedded in some assets and liabilities. For instance, mortgage loans present significant option risk due to prepayment speeds that change dramatically when interest rates rise and fall. Falling interest rates will cause many borrowers to refinance and repay their loans, leaving the bank with uninvested cash when interest rates have declined. Alternately, rising interest rates cause mortgage borrowers to repay slower, leaving the bank with relatively more loans based on prior, lower interest rates. Option risk is difficult to measure and control.

Most banks are asset sensitive, meaning interest rate changes impact asset yields more than they impact liability costs. This is because substantial amounts of bank funding are not affected, or are just minimally affected, by changes in interest rates. The average checking account pays no interest, or very little interest, so changes in interest rates do not produce notable changes in interest expense. However, banks have large concentrations of short-term and/or variable rate loans, so changes in interest rates significantly impact interest income. <<In general, banks earn more money when interest rates are high, and they earn less money when interest rates are low.>> This relationship often breaks down in very large banks that rely significantly on funding sources other than traditional bank deposits. Large banks are often liability sensitive because they depend on large concentrations of funding that are highly interest rate sensitive. Large bank also tend to maintain large concentrations of fixed rate loans, which further increases liability sensitivity. Therefore, large banks will often earn more net interest income when interest rates are low.
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sambordulac

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