Greetings Mr. Montana,

Per 1Q data, total non-accrual jumped from $20 million at year end 2008 to $56 million. On top of that, the amount past due 30 to 89 days, a precursor for more non-current loan & lease also jumped from $17 million to $27 million. The allowance for loss was raised to $50 million. Depending on the economy and employment, the bank may need to increase allowance substantially.
Tier-1 equity was a healthy 10.41%. (Without TARP, it's still about 7.57%.) IMO This should be sufficient for it to survive even a more prolonged recession, provided it doesn't lever up (increase the size of loan portfolio). Loan to asset of 77% was high enough. The average interest rate spread of 3.11% was healthy, and will provide a good cushion for loan loss allowance.

The recent weakness of share prices may mean that loan portfolio have experienced further deterioration, but I don't have any confirmation, not even from other similarly situated banks.

$2.58 (about 28% of last reported book value) looks enticing even with that possibility, but I'd wait for 2Q results to see just how bad it had become. The numbers deteriorated too quickly in just one quarter.

That's about all, and I hope it helped.

Best, sam