I think your views are reasonable for the most part. There will be much more clarity regarding the stock's ultimate potential two years out. By then, you would think that the economy will have stabilized more, their transition of their business to the bank will be much, much further along and, importantly, the bank can start dividending money to the parent (beginning mid-2011). I think the third point is important, because a stable dividend is an important pillar of stock price. My prediction is that CSE will quickly raise its dividend back to a nickel once it starts showing a profit. But then, dividend growth will be slow, and may not occur until mid-2011 when the parent can access the bank's profits. I see the stock's potential being in the ten to fifteen dollar range between now and YE 2011. That said, I do not believe there will movement of substance until profitability and management's credibility improve.

As to the latter, as much as their performance has been lousy, their underwriting and business plan was better than a lot of others who are now out of business or steeped with government aid. I don't don't give them a pass, because I don't think they've always played it straight with shareholders. But I do believe that loans that appeared to be extremely well secured/safe in the 2005-2007 period would up being losers because values plunged so much. The gist I got on one of their calls was that their underwriting, which they have always touted was a strength, was good -- in relation to others; but in retrospect, even what they thought was good wound up being bad.

Good luck!