I am truly stumped by this stock. As I posted before, I own a decent bit of it. I looked at the last quarter 10Q last night and I just don't see how they are not going to post a great number. I have a decent knowledge of the loan market and I don't really see any stinkers in their portfolio (at least none that they have not already written down - maybe United Subcontractors). At least let's hope so.

At the end of the last quarter, they had $376mm in debt, with a total cost of debt of around 1.30%, so the way I figure their debt servicing cost will be around $1.2mm. That is if they did not pay down any of the debt. Investment income should be around $32mm (down a little due to reduction in libor). So assuming that the other expenses are in line, BKCC should again make around $.45 a share in NOI. Even if they don't write up any loans or incur any realized losses (I am hoping that the realization and change in valuation is actually accretive to NAV this quarter), that is a great quarter.

If they post those kind of numbers, I would think they would have to declare a larger dividend. I don't think this stock increases much until management increases the dividend. My prediction is that they will continue to be conserviative but will increase the dividend to $.32 share.

Finally, I am curious what they say about the future. Will they starting buying new loans or will they continue to repay the revolver down. At this point, I would think buying a good loan yield 5-8% would be a better investment than repaying a loan facility that is already overcollateralized and is yielding (costing) L+87bps.