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Re: Γßßßßß╝FLY/BUYª/HOLDª/SELL? ßß▬ßßß      7-Nov-09 01:16 pm    
There aren't any experts on this board Chizzzzo, only guys and gals trying their best to figure out what's happening and what's going to happen in the future and sharing their opinions with other serious investors. Of course we have a growing Peanut Gallery that just want to be heard. We're all entitled to express ourselves. I was just wondering why you would only want to listen to the experts. Aren't these the analysts that predicted 24 cents for Q3 and $1.04 for the entire year for 2010. We now know that they were seriously wrong for Q3 09 and I would be willing to wager that they will miss the mark by a huge amount in their predictions for 2010. I don't know the future but look at what we do know. Between now and March 2010 they will buy back 75 million of discounted debt for 48 cents on the dollar. Management stated in the Q3 conference call that this would increase book value by $1.30. Of course we don't know at this time whether the purchase will be split, some in Q4 09 and the remainder in Q1 2010. If we assume that the purchase will be split we start out with 65 cents in earnings, from this item alone in 2010. Factoring in that debt will have been reduced by 220 million as a result of the debt buy back, interest expense should be greatly reduced. Figuring in a conservate five and a half per cent interest rate should save them 13 to 14 cents a year in interest payments. That's 78-79 cents a share added to whatever else they generate from their one hundred per cent leased fleet. With this in mind I feel comfortable stating that the experts might not have gotten it right in projecting $1.04 for 2010. Actually I think it helps us out when the analysts low ball us because we get the bounce in price when we beat the street. The only drawback is that some people get hurt in the market by listening only to the experts. Many of us on this board listen to them but we also verify and share information.


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georgefalco

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Re: Γßßßßß╝FLY/BUYª/HOLDª/SELL? ßß▬ßßß
georgefalco (2 Ratings) 7-Nov-09 01:16 pm  
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Babcock & Brown Air Limited (FLY)

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