<<The sad fact is that we committed a rookie error in March >>

Yep, no doubt. I look back at the divergences between RSI and the charts, and its there plain as day. Having opinions can be dangerous.

And I think the worst part, for me anyway, was overriding my money mgmt disciplines. Getting stopped out all the time being short was a LOUD AND CLEAR MESSAGE that I wanted to ignore.

Ironically, in terms of the longs I bought, I knew damn well we'd hit bottom. I suppose part of what skewed me was the fact that many of the longs I bought hit bottom in October - December, and had left them behind in March, so I was focused on another sell off. WRONG!

So all in all, I'm coasting off the money I made last year and am doing fine since I'm long and short, but this only some comfort in making the rookie mistake you cite.

BTW, the selloff at the end of the day was quite interesting.

My only conclusion is Mr Market is realizing the FED is at the end of both its actual easing and quantitative easing, and that now, truly the only direction is UP in terms of FED behavior.

IOW, sugar daddy is completely out of sugar.