"I think the great recession is winding down," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Retailing should firm a bit in the next few months, helped by the stimulus package, and I think lean inventories will trigger production increases."
More optimistic analysts believe the economy will start growing again in the current July-September 2009 period, helped by the government's stimulus spending.

Zandi said the $787 billion stimulus package of increased government spending and tax cuts should translate into a sizable boost to the economy in this quarter, turning what would have been another GDP decline into a small increase of around 1 percent.
The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index posted a 44.8 -- the best showing since last August, a month before the financial crisis erupted with force.