Who has more knowledge and credibility? Michael Murphy who has been a biotech and software watcher and analyst since the 1970s, or our friend, Adam Feuerstein of TheStreet?, who, someone said, pegged the Peramivir drug at $15 per treatment course...

Did Adam Feuerstein really estimated Peramivir pulling no more than just $15 per treatment course? Surely that's not true? I don't follow him, reading everything he writes, but surely that's a bit too low, even for him, no?

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One influenza analyst expects overseas orders this week

•Antiviral H1N1 flu treatment averages $2,250

SAN FRANCISCO – BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ antiviral treatment peramivir for 2009 H1N1 influenza could generate $1 billion a year in profit margin, or as much as $28 a share.

The numbers on the emergency intravenous treatment peramivir derive from long-standing Ticker Trax™ coverage of the protein inhibitor peramivir and the publicly-traded U.S. company (BCRX).

Analyst Michael Murphy of New World Investor says a five-day peramivir treatment of critically ill influenza patients in many cases will be doubled to 10 days if doctors heed advice from the Centers for Disease Control in the United States. Such a pace of treatment would cover 5,000 intensive-care-unit patients suffering from the virus, which has existed since at least 1918.

BioCryst CEO Jon Stonehouse announced Thursday that the U.S. government, via the Department of Health & Human Services, will pay $22.5 million for 10,000 five-day regimens of the drug. Peramivir manufactures plasma that is delivered to life-threatening sites of infection in swine-flu patients.

Those who track swine flu developments said the price for peramivir was as much as triple what they were anticipating.

Overseas governments, led perhaps by the Ukraine and India, two hard-hit nations, could place orders for the antiviral compound this week, Ticker Trax reporting shows.

Scientists this week reported the H1N1 virus is killing 10 percent of the victims who seek hospital care. A California Department of Public Health survey just released showed a mortality rate of 11 percent.

Of those who died in the survey, 12 days passed from the onset of symptoms. Viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome led the causes for the deaths.

Each five-day regimen contains a total of 3,000 milligrams of the drug, which is showing an 80 percent or higher success rate in patients who must be hospitalized for respiratory and other influenza complications. Peramivir slows the effects of the enzyme influenza neuraminidase that accelerates the spread of the Type A H1N1 virus in humans.

Mr. Murphy at New World Investor is one of a small number of analysts and writers who are tracking the experimental drug peramivir. Michael Murphy has tracked software and biomedical companies as a Certified Financial Adviser since 1970.

“HHS in Washington almost surely will be purchasing the remainder of its potential allotment,” Mr. Murphy said Thursday. Such an order would require another 30,000 treatments at a price of $67.5 million. “The price that the company negotiated is remarkable.”