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Advertising Environment     11-Jul-08 12:17 pm    
Anyone share some thoughts on the state of the industry? I think the economy worsens (big surprise, eh) and that in a normal year that would put pressure on volumes, rates and margins.....but this year we have the election media buys and the Olympic buys on NBC, etc. so some significant one-time (cyclical) demand coming thru in ALOY Q3...the make-or-break Qtr...Q3 is critical for the fiscal year at ALOY...

With revs. guided to $225-240 mm and adj.EBITDA guided to $20-24 mm the company is getting cash flow back to calendar '05-'06 levels (excl.charges)...cal.'07 was half of those levels due to acq. integrations....so, the investment decision rests on rev. growth and restored cash flows....any predictions?

Risks include cash burns for cap.ex. etc....cash&equiv. down 50% in 6months...working capital down 30% over the same time frame....plus $3.2mm of mkt.secs. are troubled auction rate pfds that cannot currently be monetized without 50% or so haircut....most co's I follow have already taken writedowns on their ARP's of about 30%...that would mean a write down of $1mm for ALOY in Q2...again, any thoughts?

I have no position yet but like co's valued at 5-6 times cash flow....

Any comments on industry strength or slow down would be appreciated...


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thinkfirsta...

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Advertising Environment
thinkfirsta... (1 Rating) 11-Jul-08 12:17 pm  
 
Are there any posters on this board?....seems no o...
thinkfirsta... Rate it 14-Jul-08 12:24 pm  
 
I thought the valuation at 5-6 time free cash flow...
jam_43_go Rate it 19-Apr-09 01:59 pm  
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Alloy Inc. (ALOY)

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