I love Apple. Let's get that out of the way right now.

But the truth of the matter is that Apple has had a 30% run up in a little over a month. Everything is priced into the stock already.

People know 3G iPhone is coming.
People have low expectations for iPod sales.
People have high expectations for Mac Sales.

This is all priced in. Given the fact that Apple ran up 10% last week and now everyone is feeling safe I think the smarter money is on going Short Apple. If the market has taught me one thing in the past 3 months it is that fundamentals mean nothing. Apple had it's BEST quarter ever for revenues and earnings and the stock was punished like no company I've ever seen punished because they guided lower in a bad economy. Good companies give numbers they can hit.

I know it's easy to get enamored with what happened with Google on Friday but remember this:

Google high was 747 and got whacked down to 412. (45% decrease).

Apple's high was 200 and got whacked down to 115 (42.5% decrease).

Now GOOG is at 540 which is 28% off it's high.
Apple is at 161 which is 19% off it's high.

Don't be fooled. The sentiment on Apple is clearly long but to think that it's got more to run here is a bit folly. Wall Street is still licking it's wounds and it's fastest way to profits is to trade in this market using derivatives. They proved back in January that they can move this stock any way they want. And they'll do it again.

I don't know who is running Apple's Investor Relations but they would have been much better off reporting the week that options expired when things generally tend to rally because of short covering and options expiration. They are coming in towards the tail end of a positive earnings run for companies. I can see this turning bad for Apple investors.

If Apple's earnings in January were delivered a week earlier or a week later we wouldn't have seen as bad of a hit in the stock IMO. It's just bad timing again. In very much the same light that Google had the stars align for it's earnings release ("Postive" IBM, INTC earnings and options expiration were the trifecta that brought things together for the stock.) The stars are aligning for Apple's stock to take a 10% hit which would put it closer to 28% off it's high.