I am a long, but I think that this is a little bit unrealistic, even if Apple does pull off a major coup and end up controling a healthy chunk of the information and entertainment landscape.

$1500 would place the market capitalization at well over 1 trillion dollars (almost 1.5 trillion actually). Intense stock market forces will probably come to bear well before we reach that point. (If you think volatility is an issue now, just wait until investors have REALLY itchy trigger fingers when the market capitalization is high enough to purchase several small countries.) Remember, since Apple (and several companies like it) pay no dividends, the only value attached to owning the stock is the potential to sell it while it is up. The traditional expected "valuation" of a stock (using PE and growth) is actually somewhat arbitrary, and it can break down rapidly if something really seems unrealistic... like a 1.5 trillion dollar market cap, for instance.

As we move forward, and the stock market goes up, along with standard inflation, I do believe that Apple will eventually move there, but to expect it in the near term is foolish, I think. Any perceived imbalance between a given company and the rest of the world, especially given the arbitrary nature of valuation, will present a huge barrier to further share price gains. Let's work on reaching $600/share in the next 3 years before we get stars in our eyes. At that point, probably half of the owners will have already seen a 10 bagger or more... and they may be eager to unload at the first sign of trouble... even on a rumor. (I know that I would be sorely tempted at that point.)

Just my "keeping it real" opinion.


Thompson