In my opinion the third quarter represents an
important inflection point for AHC---
Senior Management has done a spectacular job
under trying and stressful conditions to
reduce costs and achieve positive cash flow.
The $14 million in EBITDA
essentially represented cash flow in the quarter before
debt service and capital spending. Capital
spending of approximately $4 million and the
retirement of the $10 million in bank debt
took care of the $14 million leaving cash on
the balance sheet of $10 million essentially
unchanged from end of 2nd qtr.
Assuming even approximately the same EBITDA
for the 4th qtr. (I am hoping for a little
better)---cash on the balance sheet at the end
of the year could be well over $20 million
and even higher if any of the real estate
is sold---
I am assuming that the $20 million is really
the amount that is needed to run the company
on an ungoing basis without
the strain that I am sure has been the case for the past year

There is a good chance in my opinion that
cash generation in 2010 and 2011 of $40 million
in each year???? could leave us at
least theoretically with $100 million cash
on the balance sheet at the end of 2011.
I would regard $80 million as excess cash
available for stock buybacks or accretive
well conceived acquisitions.
The cash number could be higher if some
real estate is sold---
The above is somewhat theoretical-- If this were to
materialize the way I envision I would assume
that management would be deploying
some of the cash generated on an ungoing basis--
for the aforementioned stock buybacks and
well conceived acquisitions or perhaps some
new initiatives related to internet and
new technologies??
My price target goal is $8-$10 two
years from now.
Everyone of course should continue to do their
own due diligence--many risk factors (see
SEC filings)---