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Message Boards Settings Approach Resources, Inc. (AREX) - Quote Info
Valuation     12-Mar-09 03:07 pm    
I don't follow them all, but the valuation on AREX seems very compelling and is about the cheapest I can find, all things considered.

The Yahoo EV is flaky and out of date for the Q4 results, but I estimate it to be somewhere in the $125 M range. With 211 B's of reserves, the reserve value is about $.60/mcfe. For 48% developed reserves, that is a very attractive price in any day or time.

The EV is also less than the standardized or pre-tax PV-10 at the crappy year-end prices. Not something you see every day for a company not in financial stress.

With about ~40% of '09 production hedged at near $8/mcfe, they should be producing some good cash flow to fund their programs or pay down debt.

Lastly, they are at little risk now of suffering from the liquidity stress fear that is destroying other small E&Ps on a near regular basis (e.g., SGY, PQ). Their borrowing base of $100 M is half of the $200 M credit facility, and they only have $47 M drawn down. Even if the base gets cut in half, which I seriously doubt, they have no liquidity issues. From looking at the reserve growth, etc., I wouldn't be surprised if the borrowing base is actually increased. That would give them even more flexibility.

Unless they make a foolish mistake with an acquisition or go hog wild drilling, they look to be a definite survivor, if not a victor, of this price slide. I suspect they might pick up some distressed assets in their core areas for peanuts before this is over. Sounded that way on the call at least.

Lastly, I am impressed by the attention to detail of the company reports. When updating my year-end reserve data for the public companies I follow, it becomes a chore to dig out the variables needed to value them. Sometimes you have to get into the 10-K to look for what you need, and it might not even be there. Some outfits haven't even filed their 10-Ks yet, so it is not even possible. AREX laid it out in detail right in the PR.

I was also impressed by the number of analysts on the call for a company this size.

I've been buying some and will buy more if it goes lower than it was today.


Sentiment : Strong Buy
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bcorrea7370...

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Valuation
bcorrea7370... (1 Rating) 12-Mar-09 03:07 pm  
 
I agree . a very well run small cap e & p company ...
paythepiper... Rate it 28-Jul-09 10:44 am  
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Approach Resources, Inc. (AREX)

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