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OK, I'll now throw out some loose thoughts out there, comments or contrary (but founded) views are welcome.
First, yes, I am very heavily invested in Alvarion. Much too heavy by any standard. Why? Because I have always liked the approach and philosophy of the BOD: IMO they really want to make this company a success and are not using it as some sort of cash cow for themselves (we all know sometimes this is the case). This is evidenced by several FACTS during the past few years: - the stock buyback of last year - the cutback in executives pay along with the layoffs b/c of the financial crisis - a steep drop in SG&A costs - a only modest decline in R&D costs - a rarely seen honesty and transparancy As far as the last issue goes, I will say Friedman and the new CFO have irritated me several times during the past few CC's. They are TOO honest if you ask me, they could maintain a lower profile on some very critical or delicate issues, so they don't hurt stock price. I am not saying they should LIE, but it is easy to elegantly AVOID certain issues which are not likely to improve investors sentiment towards the company. During the last CC, I really got the impression that Friedman was taking some kind of "revenge" vs. the BOD (which clearly asked him to leave). The one critical question was about the growth of Wimax in general and how the growth of ALVR would compare to that. He said he expected a "25%" growth in general in 2010, but he didn't think ALVR would realize that kind of growth. That is a very strong statement which should have been avoided saying! How can he know? How can anyone know? Wimax could grow a whole lot more...or less. As could ALVR... It looks like 2009 will show something like $240M in revenues for ALVR. However, for instance, we are one of the four finalists for part of the BSNL project of which the value is equal to that of a year's revenues! And we all know that ZTE and Telsima (HSTX) have "inferior" products, so one or even both could still be dropped... My point is that there are way too many unknowns (other example: US stimulus could result in much more than $50M in additional revenus) and variables (the world economy, credit market, and so on) to be able to give these kind of statements!!! But, of course, these things get the most attention and distract the focus from the real issue here: PROFITABILITY!!! The BOD has pushed hard to cut expenses and Friedman's team did a great job doing so, we even might get a slight GAAP EPS profit in q4 09. So, in 2010, any revenue growth should go straight to the bottom line. $58M is now the breakeven point...IMO we will see a three cents non-GAAP profit in q4 09 and q1 10 should even be better...but this message got totally lost in all the general Wimax growth talk! Indonesia, Taiwan, India and so on now represent what, 10% of total revenues? As does North America (about 10%)? This is where all the growth will be and the leverage for ALVR is ENORMOUS! Did he emphasize this? No! I have nothing against Friedman, on the contrary, but his commercial (and investor relations) abilities are below par IMO. I think we might see a whole different approach with the new CEO. Let's hope this man can get some large investors interested in our company and can create some kind of "buzz" about ALVR. In the mean time, I will sit here and wait some more (again). Maybe I will add more shares should it drop below $3.50. GLTA I am deucieboy Sentiment : Strong Buy Rating :
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42/Female |
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| Subject | Author | Rating | Time of Post (ET) | ||
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About the CC and current position of ALVR
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deucieboy |
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6-Nov-09 09:36 am | ||
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You got one thing right---Friedman was a less than...
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hpeter43 | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 09:49 am | ||
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While we all wish Friedman 'could have sold' ...
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mikaelnunez | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 10:46 am | ||
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>>Maybe I will add more shares should it drop belo...
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judynj1 | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 09:49 am | ||
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Lets see! As I read here sometime back you ho...
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sierrathund... | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 12:01 pm | ||
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Don't let this BOY fool you, this BOY ev...
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honestyours... | (1 Rating) | 6-Nov-09 12:20 pm | ||
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I don't have 200k shares, but just over ...
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deucieboy | (1 Rating) | 6-Nov-09 12:37 pm | ||
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>>a gamble once in while never hurt...
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honestyours... | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 01:05 pm | ||
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Deucieboy. I recall your reply to s...
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sierrathund... |
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6-Nov-09 04:24 pm | ||
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I also read that post and tho...
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shellek_34 | (1 Rating) | 6-Nov-09 05:52 pm | ||
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It's spelled "liar", not ...
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hpeter43 | Rate it | 6-Nov-09 06:20 pm | ||
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Listen, Sierra, I don't care w...
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deucieboy |
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8-Nov-09 04:25 am | ||
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You must be sick or liar,...
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lordairn |
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8-Nov-09 07:07 am | ||
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I really wonder, WHY this...
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love_fun_pl... | (2 Ratings) | 8-Nov-09 07:15 am | ||
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Hey I belive you when you...
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ginko_45263 | (2 Ratings) | 8-Nov-09 07:52 am | ||
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I have never lied here or...
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just_woodma... |
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8-Nov-09 09:26 am | ||
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I also remember 20K ...
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big.lebowsk... |
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8-Nov-09 01:34 pm |
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