As they mentioned in the PR and conference:

-It seems like '534 actually works; it worked in 75% of T315i patients (failure rate of 25%). This is great news....because, UNLIKE "ridaforolimus" which FAILS in 71% of patients (only a 29% success rate - very poor - and a likely reason why SUCCEED trial is going to show failure early in 2010), '534 works "most of the time."

-They boldly stated that '534 will simply be a "second and third line" defense against CML and will only be a "complimentary" drug to three other drugs of choice (which are marketed and perform in first-line better than is would seem '534 performs). Looks like Gleevec, and Sprycel are still the drugs of choice.

Personally, I feel Merck is going to disolve the Ariad partnership in early 2010 when they get the data that ridaforolimus doesn't really work well at all as a single-agent drug, and there are much better P13K-inhibitors out there that perform much better than mTOR and ridaforolimus. We've already seen the data from the rida/Avastin combo and it sure looks like that one was a bust with this combo causing severe ulcers in patients. Breast is not going to happen. I wonder if they'll even bother with the Endometrial study and Lung study....sure seems like Merck wants out of this relationship and is dragging their feet - big time - which is why Harvey keeps lying to shareholders about getting more money from Merck, etc., (just like he lied at the shareholder meeting - in August - saying the Merck negotiations were almost done - and now two months later - absolultely NOTHING).

So, in general, here's is what I expect from a '534 partnership:

Because '534 will only be used for a third or fourth line of defense and we have NO data at all that it even works in solid tumors, I see a partnership as follows:

- $15 million upfront paid to Ariad. Probably another $75 million in royalties down the line. We may get the news soon!

This is great because if they announce such a great partnership, I might get closer to my $22/average price.

Tell me all what you think.

Regards,
N.
(Stephen)