Looks like I had some valid concerns regarding ARD being late on their proved reserve report. This will ultimately end up delaying the issuance of the 10K. The deadline on a 10K is usually March 31 for a company like ARD.

Here is the narrative from the 10NT (A filing to alert the SEC that the 10K will be late):

"Arena Resources, Inc. has engaged an independent petroleum engineering consultant to aid in the preparation of the Company's estimated quantities of oil and natural gas reserves and the related discounted present value of future pre-tax cash flows and standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows therefrom ("Reserve Estimate"). The Reserve Estimate will not be completed in time to enable the Company to complete all of the disclosure required in its Annual Report on Form 10-K (including its audited financial statements) and have its Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on the due date."

The company estimates that they will have the 10K (and ultimately the proved reserve report) completed by no later than April 15, 2007. This is indicated by the following statement in the 10NT:

"The Company currently anticipates that the Reserve Estimate will be completed, and its Annual Report on Form 10-K will be filed, within the 15 calendar day extension allowed by...the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended."

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetc...

This is a red flag. I was hard on GMXR for being late on their 10Ks in the last 5 years. I"ll also be hard on ARD. There is absolutely no excuse to be late like this.

Dok

What is more than a little concerning is that there was not even a press release from the company on this fairly important development.

This stock trades at pretty hefty multiples (P/E, value of reserves etc.) to its peers and now there is uncertainity as to the amount of those reserves that traders are valuing so dearly?

My concern here has always been the realatively large amount of the company's reserves that have yet to be developed. A future hicup in prices and high development costs are always a large unknown variables that appear to get lost by rookie investors chasing these type oil plays.

Solid management and relatively high stable oil prices could ultimately justify this stock run-up. However the run-up is still a little suprising in this type of overall market and increasingly murky visibility of what everyone appears to-date to be valuing with unbridled confidence.

I may be missing one here, but for now on the sidelines.

I just find it so unbelievable that ARD couldn't get their reserve report and 10K out ontime. Afterall, this company has never been late in submitting an SEC filing since company inception back in 2001. This is so unlike a Tim Rochford run company. I posted some of my thougths in a recent blogpost that many may find interesting.

http://doktorstocks.blogspot.com/2007/03...

BTW, I think you are smart to be on the sidelines with ARD. Right now there are expectations that simply can't be met as far as EPS. Also the expectations of oil in KS and at least 40.2% growth in 2006 reserves are what shareholders have their hearts set on. If ARD doesn't produce oil in KS or increase reserves 40.2% then share price will get hit hard. (I think it will get hit hard just by virtue of EPS coming in below estimates of $0.46 for Q4.) This is shoulder season...oil prices will be weak...UN will pussyfoot around with Iran...and the price of nickel will skyrocket.. This is why I left ARD completely by March 8 and had my entire position moved into Lionore Mining (LIM.to (Canadian dollars) / LMGGF (U.S. dollars)) I would highly advise those in ARD to move funds over to Lionore mining. It is easy to do even if you are a U.S. citizen. Owning a canadian stock is no big deal. (People who have never purchased a foreign share before have a fear...but the fear is unwarranted.)

My blog has some good info on Lionore Mining:

http://doktorstocks.blogspot.com/2007/03...

Dok

What? Doctordip@#$% know it all has bailed? ROFLMAO You are nothing but a frigging pumper. Now that you sold all your shares, you voice your concern about ARD? You are POS.

So much for the stock going down because of Friday's announcement.

Still not sure about how the company is valued, however this is one amazing stock. I have noted in the past, days when the sector is off, this stock goes up. Now they delay their 10-K, usually a bad event, and the stock goes up.

Amazing stuff.

arena has beat estimates in the last 10 quarters..with oil still over 50 bucks..no reason to thonk they won't beat again..the overview is more relevant than the detail..every oil firm hitws a tack in the road toward any given quarter. I think you are missing the forest for the trees.sythecrook