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my take...     16-Jan-08 03:00 pm    
Good evening gents. I have been watching this one closely too. Easy, inexpensive way to get financials exposure. My take...I think there is still 5 to 10 percent more downside risk on the sector (and fund), but, obviously, lots of pullback already. Never want to catch the falling knife, but history has taught us that the market tends to react too favorably on the upside and to negative on the downside. Looks like there are some solid firms with strong balance sheets that are being punished in a market environment that is vastly emotion driven selling. Has C, BSC and MER had issues? Yes. Has Countrywide been caught with their hand in the collective cookie jar? Looks that way. Could we have seen something like this coming with the homebuilders leading the way down on declining revenue and orders 12 months ago? Yes. Are all the players involved done going to confessional? IMHO, not quite yet. Earnings season will be telling. AT SOME POINT, I expect the market to grow numb to another firm write down of $5 or $10 billion. I think once we see that, in combination with analysts revising earnings and revenue expectations down, we may have hit some level of bottom. I would tread lightly if this is nest egg money. If this is speculative/contrarian money, maybe not as much. Good luck gents. Earnings season will be interesting.
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bmitchell77

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my take...
bmitchell77 Not rated 16-Jan-08 03:00 pm  
 
dOWN 6.27% since your message. Tomorrow should be ...
emclu Rate it 21-Jan-08 07:22 pm  
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T. Rowe Price Financial Services (PRISX)

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