It isn't just debt companies cutting off credit, though there is certainly some of that. A lot of people mis-understand the credit cycle anyway, and some people think it drives the expansions and contractions, but my opinion is that it is simply an indicator. As a baby boom group moves through their 30s and 40s, they have tremendous expenditures paying for children, homes, furnishings, etc, and that leads to a massive credit expansion, which some call a credit bubble. As they move into their 50s and 60s, they need to get out of debt and have positive savings so that they can retire, and that in turn leads to a credit contraction. When they are spending, and credit is expanding, the economy booms. When they stop spending, and start saving, the economy contracts. Thus in my opinion the spending cycle drives both credit and economic expansion, and it isn't the credit cycle acting in a vacuum that drives the economy.

Normally at this point in the cycle, baby boomers should begin preparing for retirement, and that will lead to decreased spending and debt, and increased savings. That is perfectly normal, and isn't because of credit institutions refusing to lend, but rather because of a decreased willingness to borrow, and a desire to be debt free. That credit contraction in turn is what creates the huge deflationary pressures that the Fed is currently trying to offset. If my crystal ball would only tell me how successful they will be, then I'd know where to invest, but in the meantime I continue to dabble in a variety of areas.

As I have said, I've been out of Bearx for the last year or so, but am considering when to re-enter. I anticipated somewhat of a recovery this year, and a year without inflation, but now I'm debating when the next wave down will begin. My current thinking is that it should start soon, but that things always take longer than you expect, so it probably won't begin until next Spring.

A lot of people do seem to mis-understand the function of Tice, by the way. Just as a Tech Fund manager has a job of trying to pick tech stocks in good and bad times, Tice's job is to inversely perform the S&P in both good times and bad. Whether you like him or not, he's done a very respectable job of that.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BEARX&t=...