technically, look at the weekly chart. the 50 week is below the 200 week average. this is bearish. it's going to take time to unload on baggies...especially when XOM continues buying back stock. once it's done with repurchasing, there will be no buyers to prop the price. that and I think XOM could run into a liquidity crisis paying dividends and still maintaining an aggressive development/capex schedule. results are strong enough for cash drain at least w/o slowing down some. however if it cuts production, it'll send a bad signal to investors. i know plenty of people holding XOM since the 1970s, and they've all sold out this year. i think people are simply cashing out and monetizing long-term gains...hence the 48% held institutionally. the stock is up well over 4000% since 1970s--excluding dividends--and I think smart money doesn't want to be plundered with that much gain baked-in.