Because GDX had been beaten up before this leg up in gold began GDX has basically missed the entire leg up. I doubt gold will rise more than a few more days before resistance around 1,100 and profit taking kick in for a mild short term pullback.

Which means, GDX will be very lucky to see the high 40's before it retests the low 40's again. Only a major surge in the price of gold (which I don't see this week or next week) will stop GDX from retesting the low 40's.

Anything is possible so I have bet both ways on GDX (long and short except for GLD which I am only long on) but my guess is that GDX is going to disappoint us yet again. I am only speaking very short term however. I'd say two week from now GDX could be a screaming buy.

If GDX somehow manages to pop into the low 50's here my jaw will hit the floor. Possible. Very possible. Just unlikely IMO.