|
Page
1
of about
1
First
| < Prev
| Next >
| Last
|
Messages in Topic
|
I thought Herd Greenberg's comments this AM were reaching a bit. However, I would note that there are clearly a lot of people who are betting that .com will impact WFMI's financials and value in the months to come, regardless (or rather, becasue of) of the deal with the VCs. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
It looks like Greenberg is in bed with the shorts. He savaged WFMI a year ago as well, although he retracted it at the end of the year by admitting he had been wrong--after the damage to their stock was already done. He is missing the point of what WFMI is doing as well (or perhaps he and other shorts are really concerned that without the drag of the dot com business WFMI will continue to show strong growth and he'd better do what he can to undermine the company's strategy). WFMI has found a way to insulate its core retail business from the impact of its dot com business. This allows the core retail business not to have its EPS impacted by the dot com business and it allows the dot com business to make aggressive investments for growth without being handicapped by the core retail business. For an interesting contrast look at the first page of the Money and Investment section of today's WallStreet Journal. This article explores the problems that Staples and other B&M retailers are having with their dot coms hurting their earnings growth. Staples wants to have their earnings estimates in First Call stated without the dot com losses. First Call doesn't want to do it. WFMI has found the answer that Staples and other companies are seeking. Instead of slamming WFMI, Greenberg should be praising the company for coming up with a brilliant solution to the problem they struggled with in 1999 and Staples and others are still struggling with today--how to promote an e-commerce business without destroying the market capitalization of the B&M business. WFMI has found the solution. I believe it is foolish to believe that WFMI will ever again put themselves in a position where the dot com business will hurt the core retail business. If the shorts are counting on this I believe they will be sorely disappointed (as they appear to be right now with WFMI escaping the dot com earnings trap they were in last year). Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
Whether the .com results are aggregated or not is irrelevant. If you start with the assumption that WFMI had an asset, then as a shareholder, all you should care about is whehther you got a fair deal or. In other words, the fact that WFMI may not have to put another dime in it, etc., is reflected fairly in the deal. Absent further information, value was not created nor destroyed. My personal belief is that, regardless of accounting, every dollar of capital invested in etailing is dollar destroyed. WFMI's agreement only shields the accounting and only temporarily. Shielding from the economic impact is contingent on future events that are somewhat beyond their control. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
"Every dollar of capital invested in etailing is a dollar destroyed." Surely you exaggerate the doom and gloom of e-commerce as much as the New Economy faithful were exaggerating the upside just a few months ago. E-commerce is here to stay and will become an increasingly important part of our existence as time passes. WFMI is aggressively positioning themselves for the future and they are doing it without hurting their existing retailing business. It is the Venture Capitalists who are taking the big risk with WholePeople.com--not WFMI shareholders. No doubt Hedge, if WFMI made no investments in their e-commerce future and sat completely out of the game, you would be the leader of the crowd trashing them a few years from now when e-commerce begins to pay off. You would call the WFMI management team idiots and "nimrods" for taking such a short-term perspective and ignoring the long-term. WFMI has made a strategically brilliant move--they have protected short-term shareholder interests while positioning the company to be a long-term winner in e-commerce. You, Herb, and the other shorts can say whatever you like. WFMI will have the last laugh. Our differences in opinion will be empirically tested over time. Hedge scorecard on 1/24 WFMI short at $44 +13% (congratulations--so far). Hold that short long-term Hedge! Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
I disagree. I believe none or very few e-tailers will be successful -- no exaggeration. You are wrong about the structure of the deal. You are potentially exposed. The VCs took $35mm of risk. You are taking the rest. That is the way it stands now. The only way that this changes is if a) WFMI can offload the risk to the public or b) WFMI can restructure the deal. If you believe in the future of .com, you want the risk and the potential reward. If you don't, like me, you hope that .com can't be peeled away and will negatively impact the value of the mother entity. If you really love the .com, as a long-term investor, you should be encouraging WFMI to keep as much as possible and too fund as much as possinle internally. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
I agree with Hedge on this point: accounting gimics are just gimics and moreover they are ignored by investors. Whatever wholepeople costs, wholepeople shareholders will pay. Note that wholefoods did not just contribute amrion but also made a $20 million investment in some health organization (I'm not sure where that is carried). I'm not saying that wholepeople can't be worthwhile. But is is very speculative: e-tailing businesses have not been generating profits. No one understands what the long term economics of this business are, that is what it takes in advertising costs to drive sales. Now that I've agreed with Hedge, I'll also write something disagreeable. I don't think he has a consistent view of why he is short since it changes from day-to-day. Is it the .com: he doesn't like it but usually doesn't cite it as the main reason nor does he explain why long term growth its bad ("it just is, trust me"), nor does he explain why the costs should impact WFMI more than other retailers. Maybe it is vague feelings about all of this. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
Consider the .com "perception" gravy. As for the reasons to not own the stock, ask your fellow shareholders and those waiting to become shareholders. Because it is their conviction, not the shorts, that pressures the stock. Forget me, I'm just a gnat. The stock and the company performance speak for themselves. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
The stock performance is subject to condition of the overall markets, the perception of the analysts, individual investors, institutional investors as well as manipulation by the shorts and momentum investors. The company's performance does speak for itself - quarter after quarter after quarter...... The shorts seem to be paying particular attention to the stock at this time no doubt as a final push to get themselves out before the company makes its next quarter or two and starts trading on 2001 estimates. This .com criticism is another pathetic attempt to misrepresent what was clearly a brilliant move by Mackey and WFMI. They have determined and executed a strategy that will enable them to leverage the most powerful brand in the natural foods industry to participate in an area (the internet) that will clearly have a huge impact on the way people do business in the future. What's even more brilliant is the fact that, unlike other e-tailers who have failed or are in trouble because they have had to spend so much on customer acquistions, Wholepeople.com will not spend huge amounts of money on advertising for customer acquisition because they will market to and acquire those customers in their own bricks and mortar stores. Of course the success of the internet will wax and wane until only the legitimate players are left. I like Wholepeople.com and WFMI's chances. In the meantime, rather than spending significant liquid resources of their own, WFMI has used venture capital money ($35 million of it) to fund the operation. This structure shields the losses up to that amount from WFMI and thus protects the core business of WFMI and its shareholders from those losses while it ramps up the business. I applaud Mackey and the company for its creative and bold move to enable its shareholders to participate in leveraging the Whole Foods Market brand into the internet without affecting its core business. Herb Greenberg's implication of questionable practices in this regard was a shameless attempt by him and his short pals to question and raise doubt to what is clearly a brilliant move and strategy. To imply that Wholepeople.com will blow through the $35 million in 3 or 4 more quarters simply defies basic mathematics and logic and is a further demonstration of his agenda. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
The COMPANY's performance has been nothing to write home about. Are we talking about the same company? And you not of which you speak re etailing. There are many, many (r)etailers (Staples, Barnes & Noble, even WMT -- but the list is hundreds long now) that have been able to leverage their retail operations and most, thus far, have been very unsuccessful. And what planet do you live on (I live on Zlutarch)? You think the VCs gave WFMI the money for free? You think those guys are idiots? Do you know what WFMI contributed? Well, let me tell you -- they contributed Amrion, which they purchased for $200mm and they contributed all of their internet assets, which they had developed for some time and had launched in March 1999. I don't know how much they spent on the internet sub in aggregate nor do I know the value of the asets they contributed. However, I do know that the VC's got Amrion and all of this other stuff at a valuation of $140mm. Excuse me you, say, but I thought WFMI paid $200mm for Amrion alone, not to mention the time and effort and money they put into .com? That's right. Your core business and shareholder value already got @#$%ed by this maneuver and may continue to get @#$%ed in the future. WFMI and Mackay leveraged you, that's all. And you don't even know it. Well, that destruction of value is done. But please don't confuse the manipulation of assets and press releases with the creation of shareholder value. The core business is the core business, regardless of how you account for it. What you should be concerned about is your exposure. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
I guess we'll agree to disagree about the future of e-commerce. In 5 years their won't be such a thing as e-tailers because e-commerce will be part of our daily lives. Every retail company will use the internet as one of their means of distribution. Whole Foods is going down the learning curve today and will be ready for tommorrow. Yes, the VCs are only taking a $35 million risk. You think WholePeople.com will burn this up in a few quarters. I don't think they'll ever use it all up. We shall see. Concerning stock price appreciation, I've gone back into the past and have determined stock prices for WFMI at approximately the same time each year for the last 5 years. Let's take a look at these prices and their CAGR over the last 5 years: Date Price CAGR year/over/year 2/28/95--$13.50 3/12/96--$17.375 28.70% 28.70% 3/25/97--$22.00 27.65% 26.61% 3/31/98--$69.75 72.88% 217.04% 3/29/99--$31.875 23.96% -54.30% 3/27/00--$44.00 26.66% 38.03% These numbers are very, very revealing Hedge about true returns for WFMI over the last 5 years. Here are the facts: 1. WFMI has had a CAGR over the last 5 years of 26.66%. 2. Over the last 3 years WFMI has had a CAGR of 25.99%. 3. Over the last year WFMI has had a growth rate of 38.03%. What does it mean? It means that you continually misrepresent the true performance of this stock on this Board. WFMI has shown excellent growth over both 1 year and 3 year periods. It means that if you take out the bubble year of 1998 when the stock was bid way, way over its intrinsic value the stock has shown very strong growth in valuation. If you've made money shorting this stock then you made it shorting it during the bubble year of 1998 and you've made it trading on ordinary volatility. The long-term trend of this stock is clear--it is going up! It will continue to go up with its growth rate in earnings which both WFMI and analysts are projecting to be 20% to 25% over the next few years. WFMI has put 1999 behind it. No more y2k, no more Amrion, and no more dot com losses. The core retail growth in this company is going to burn you if you continue to hold your short long-term. Our differences in opinion will be empirically tested over time. Hedge scorecard on 1/24 WFMI short at $44 +14% (congratulations--so far). Hold that short long-term Hedge! Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
zzzzzzzzzzz...the more you rant, the more sillier you appear. What the hell was that???? How about some simplicity... WFMI trades at the same price that it did in OCTOBER 1997, before the steep appreciation of that year... or WFMI is down 33% in 2 years (May to May) or WFMI is down 12% in the last year or WFMI has returned 13% over the past 3 years (for a compounded return of 4.1%) or WFMI has returned 42% over the past 4 years (for a compounded return of 9.2%), which trails well, just about everything... and the kicker...even over 5 years, the stock has undeperformed the S&P 500!!!!!!!!!! You are living in the past. For you to deny it is just embarrassing. You must be frustrated, as must be most WFMI shareholders. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...the more times I prove you wrong the sillier you look on this board and the less authority you have working your short agenda. The numbers I gave on that last post were all accurate numbers. All year-over-year numbers were compiled from the same time periods. These were the exact closing prices on these days. The value appreciation is clear and obvious and all your misrepresentations to the contrary do not change the facts. Your numbers in contrast are not accurate numbers. You continue to throw numbers on this board to prop up your B.S. that do not tie back to reality. A great example of this is when you simply made up numbers about WFMI's store economic model. You claimed Bonnie Tonneson backed you up but in fact her published numbers backed up me--not you. Your only reply was to fall back on your "professional status" and claim that WFMI and sell-side analyst numbers don't mean anything. Yes WFMI is down from 2 years ago. This is the only thing in your previous post that is accurate. All the rest of your numbers are inaccurate if year-over-year dates are used. I don't have any idea where your numbers come from. I am frustrated--not with WFMI but with you. Your lack of intellectual honesty in these matters is frustrating to me. Our differences in opinion will be empirically tested over time. Hedge scorecard on 1/24 WFMI short at $44 +14% (congratulations--so far). Hold that short long-term Hedge! Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
I have no agenda. I certainly have had no impact on your fellow shareholders, who have already done their voting. Re factual information, here is some info re closing prices. You are correct, I was a bit off on the longer-term returns. Call me sloppy, but don't call this good performance...Don't even call it average performance. Yesterday's closing price: $38 1/2 5/21/99 closing price: $43 5/8 (-11.7% to date) 5/22/98 closing price: $57 5/16 (-32.8% to date) 5/23/97 closing price: $31 (+24.2% or 7.5% annual) 5/30/96 closing price: $24 5/8 (+56.3% or 11.8%) 5 yr return 21.5% vs. SPX 21.5% 6 yr return 15.6% vs. SPX 20.7% 7 yr return 9.9% vs. SPX 17.7% 8 yr return 16.5% vs SPX 16.5% Again, the amrket may be wrong, even over 10 year periods. But the performance longer-term relative to the cheerleading and accolades and the hopes and dreams. etc. is unprecedented. I mean, I've never heard you say, "Hedge, this S&P 500 is the new wave man, trust me. Everybody's into it. It's a great security. You've got to by some." It appears that during it's best growth days, over a fairly long period of time, that WFMI has a hard time perfoming "averagely." What happens past its best growth days. I'll tell you -- off balance sheet manuevers, poor acquisitions, the occassional qurterly miss (which makes your cash flow stream less valuable), etc. And the best is yet to come... Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
It's pretty obvious by now that we are not going to agree about how the WFMI stock has performed over the long-term. We can both slice and dice the numbers to support our respective positions depending upon what dates we take our numbers because WFMI has had high price volatility in its history. The only thing I'm sure we agree about is that WFMI stock has performed poorly since 1998 when it traded at its all time high. Most of your arguments about poor returns have this as its center piece. I don't think this is such a big deal, however. Consider the following: 1. WFMI went from $8.50 to $70 from January 1992 till March of 1998. This resulted in an incredible 6.2 year CAR of 40.5%! This is far better than the S&P 500 CAR. Do you deny this or wish to refute it? 2. Alas WFMI was greatly overvalued at $70 and has since fallen to $37.25--today's closing price. This creates an 8.3 yr CAR of 19.49%. This is also significantly better than the S&P 500 CAR of 16.5% (your number last post). $10,000 invested in the S&P 8.3 years ago would have grown to $35,522 versus $43,838 at WFMI. Do you deny this or wish to refute it? 3. WFMI was greatly overvalued in 1998. Let us assume that today's closing price of $37.50 was a fair price for WFMI 2 years ago. In that case WFMI produced a 27.04% return in its first 6.2 years. Far, far better than the S&P 500. By the way--when did matching the S&P 500 (let alone beating it as WFMI has done) become merely average investing? Only 10% of mutual funds beat the S&P 500 over the long-term. I'm sure of course that the mighty Hedge is one of those "professional" managers who consistently beats the S&P 500. Surely he is one of the elite 10%! Great you say! WFMI used to be a great investment but it isn't anymore. Almost all of your negative spin on WFMI is based upon the fall from that $70 all-time high. Is WFMI still a great growth story in view of its poor returns? I believe it is. Why? Because all of WFMI problems the last 18 months have to do with non-core retail problems. There were 3 of these problems in 1999. 1. Y2K--$550k cost--now history. 2. Amrion--Operating earnings fell 29%, or $2 million. Poor acquisition. Now combined with Wholefoods.com and off the income statement. 3. Wholefoods.com--$2 million loss in 1999. Now combined with Amrion and off the income statement. If we take these 3 non-core retail problems away, which WFMI has done, we see very strong trends at WFMI--strong top and bottom line operating growth with comps at 8.9% for the first 2 quarters of the year. If things are so strong at the retail end, then why aren't we seeing greater earnings growth in 2000 over 1999? One word--Amrion. Amrion did contribute over $5 million in operating earnings to WFMI in 1999. These earnings have been taken from WFMI and are now being used to support the dot com business. This action distorts 2000 numbers. This distortion goes away in October as WFMI anniversaries the creation of WholePeople.com. Why are you going to get burned if you hold your short long-term Hedge? Because WFMI remains a powerful growth story with their retail stores simply kicking ass! Once that third quarter of meeting analyst earnings expectations passes, the market is going to start focusing on 2001--$2.35 consensus estimates--22% growth rate over 2000. 2002 numbers will be produced with expected earnings increases of 20% to 25%. WFMI is solidly back on the growth track! 1999 and 2000 were abberations for this company and WFMI has made brilliant moves to refocus on its retail business by spinning WholePeople.com off with Venture Capital investment and financial restructuring. Our differences in opinion will be empirically tested over time. Hedge scorecard on 1/24 WFMI short at $44 +18.12% (congratulations--so far). Hold that short long-term Hedge! Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
have been greatly exaggerated..." You think people aren't going to continue to buy lots of stuff on the internet? You think companies aren't going to sell lots of stuff on the internet, eventually at a profit? If you think e-tailing is truly dead, I think you are kidding yourself. For now the sector is suffering from having TOO MUCH CAPITAL thrown at it, skewing the economics of the business (with way too much free, or too deeply discounted). As the flow of capital moderates, and websites stop selling at a loss (because they no longer can afford to), things will right themselves. I'm not trying to say e-commerce is a terrific short-term investment here, but long-term the channel is here to stay for everyone - it's simply too beneficial not to... (Just for example, I recently did my entire wedding shopping for a friend in 10 minutes using an interactive on-line bridal registry, completely displayed, chosen, wrapped and shipped out to her doorstep in half the time it takes just to get to the mall parking lot - tremendous value to the customer.) And now you're going to tell me that, just like WFMI, you don't see that model as being viable in the future, right? Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
34/Male |
|
have been greatly exaggerated..." [should be - dumb Yahoo software] Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
34/Male |
|
People have always bought lots of stuff on the internet. That's not the issue. The issue is profitability. It is, by definition, an industry with no barriers. Etailers sell at a loss becasue they HAVE to. The most rotten sites will be gone or consolidated in a year or two. The best sites will transform themsleves into marketing data aggregators, advertsing vehicles, etc. The sites that are part of larger retailers may continue to serve as alternative distribution vehicles. However, in the aggregate, overall demand is not going to explode because of the internet. Consumption is consumption. Thus, Amazon and others may be causing a temporary spike in demand over and above normal growth patterns due to their novelty, but over the long haul, their sales are coming at the expense of a bricks and mortar company. They have been subsidized by (what everyone now realizes) was a speculative market that was not concerned with business plan viability. The business plan on a stand-alone basis never worked, and never will. In 2 years, you may still be making purchases on AMZN, but the market will be analyzing it as a portal or as a data aggregator and it will make its proft some other way. There will likely be room for several of these companies. But there is no room for WFMI.com nor for WSM.com nor for Fogdog.com as standalone vehicles. The very things that made your shopping experience so enjoyable and economic are the things that assure that the site will never be viable. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
If anyone should know about failed internet projects,it's the street.com and it's hired gun-Herb(known in investment circles as Bitter Herb)Greenberg who would downgrade his mother if there was a buck in it.Mackey made chicken soup out of chicken s... when he moved Amrion,raised 35 million, and protected WFMI shareholders from future losses.It sound like they have a very slow burn rate as they have ongoing cash flow from Amrion.I would venture to say that Wholepeople will outlive Oats but that's merely an opinion.Can you run a company from prison?The shorts have an advantage because they can lie while the longs are forced to play by the rules.I can assure you that before WFMI shareholders will have to eat Wholepeople losses,the shareholders will have had Mackey neutered.What the longs need is a strong voice who can't(or can)be bought to tell the story.No anal-yst has the nerve to step forward and do so.I hope Mackey,Hitt,and Sud will spread the word at various investment conferences so as not to see the shorts continue to erode the stock.Not that it matters-the company seems to be doing very well. Rating :
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() (No ratings) |
|
|
Page
1
of about
1
First
| < Prev
| Next >
| Last
|
< Newer Topic
| Older Topic >
